Reel Pop

The New York Post is reporting today that YouTube will sell itself for nothing less that $1.5 billion dollars. That's $1.5 billion, as in I think I just messed myself.

Don't bother asking if YouTube is worth that much, because nobody knows. The mood among techies is incredulous. Earlier this year Facebook floated a rumor that it was worth $2B. And just yesterday there was news that Yahoo might but Facebook for $1B. The word "bubble" has been floating around for the last year. Nobody knows what anything is worth, and nobody knows what the business plan for social networking is, video-based or not.

Mike Arrington, known as something of a kingmaker in Silicon Valley, points out that no company with a business steeped in copyright infringement has ever had a successful IPO. Mark Cuban says YouTube is about to tumble. Alex Rowland says he's full of it.

I would add that whatever media company acquires YouTube will also have to deal with the other media companies, who will immediately sue them for abetting copyright infringement. (Even though, technically, the Grokster Supreme Court ruling last year says YouTube is in the clear as long as it doesn't induce infringement and can prove substantial non-infringing use of its site.)

You know who could work out all those issues? Apple. They've dealt with every single network, and Steve Jobs is connected to Hollywood through Disney. Plus, they could use their content neutrality to keep YouTube as the Switzerland of video streaming, working out deals with every media company. Not that big media would be happy with the purchase, since Apple has already disrupted the marketplace.

I don't expect anybody to pony up all that cash before YouTube settles its copyright issues. But if someone were to buy YouTube, I hope it's Apple.

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